AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The results of the latest US elections did not merely indicate a change in the balance of power in the country's Congress but reflected the accumulated livelihood anger of the past two years. An anger that formed after the failure of US President Donald Trump's administration to fulfill its promises to curb inflation, reduce prices, and improve people's purchasing power. As a result, everyday living costs became a determining factor in shifting American voters' votes to the Democrats.
According to a report published by the Wall Street Journal, the pressure from rising food, fuel, and healthcare prices alongside the housing crisis separated part of the electoral base that had brought Trump to the White House from the Republicans and redrew America's political map. In such a way that the Democrats gained the majority of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The surveys cited in this report show that about 39 percent of voters considered inflation and the economic situation the most important issue in America, and nearly 90 percent said the cost of living played a fundamental or important role in their electoral decision. Also, three-quarters of participants described the country's economic situation as bad or not so good. This group voted for Democratic candidates by a ratio of 67 percent to 29 percent. In addition, about 80 percent announced that inflation in the past year has harmed their families.
The promise to curb inflation in the face of reality
The irony of the matter is that Trump returned to the White House in 2024 by relying on his promises to restore Americans' purchasing power and curb inflation, but in the middle of his second term, he faced a more difficult livelihood reality. Despite the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the summer, stock market indices reaching new records, and the continued decline in the unemployment rate, many Americans did not feel a similar improvement in their daily lives.
The customs tariffs imposed by the Trump administration fueled inflation by increasing the cost of goods including toys and furniture. Also, the decision to enter the war against Iran increased fuel prices in America and accelerated the inflation trend in this country. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the country's inflation rate reached 3.7 percent in September, while this rate was 2.9 percent in the final months of the administration of former US President Joe Biden. At the same time, real wages — that is, wages after accounting for the effect of inflation — declined in America for six consecutive months.
The price of fuel is no longer merely one of the cost items of American households but has become a daily indicator for measuring the deterioration of the economic situation in this country. Since the start of the war against Iran in February, gasoline prices in America have increased by about 50 percent, and the price of diesel in this country has also increased by nearly two-thirds. So that the price of this fuel reached its highest recorded level in September.
These pressures are more severe in America's agricultural and rural states. Areas whose residents depend on cars for long-distance commuting, and the agricultural sector also needs large amounts of diesel to run tractors, trucks, and machinery.
According to calculations by Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab, an average American family in the states of Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Texas had paid more than $600 in additional gasoline costs by mid-October due to the war against Iran. This figure was less than $400 in some other US states, including Indiana, Oregon, New York, and Washington.
Housing; another factor in intensifying dissatisfaction
Alongside fuel and food, housing costs have also become another source of concern. Mortgage rates in America have exceeded 7 percent and risen above their level before the 2024 elections. A situation that has made buying a home inaccessible for a large part of the American people.
Sales of homes whose initial purchase contracts were concluded but the final deal was not completed reached their lowest recorded level in September. Meanwhile, customs tariffs increased the cost of building materials, and the tightening of immigration restrictions also made finding labor in the construction sector more difficult.
The Wall Street Journal, in its report, has recounted the stories of voters who punished the ruling party in the elections due to rising prices, even some of whom had previously voted for Trump.
In the state of Ohio, a military retiree said that filling the tank of his truck now costs $130. Also, a construction worker complained about the price of each sheet of plywood rising from $4.50 to more than $30 and said that such costs make building a house more difficult.
In the state of Maine, the trade war with Canada fueled increased dissatisfaction, as the two sides have close economic relations. Meanwhile, rising fuel prices helped shift Senate seats to the Democrats in the states of Iowa and Kansas. Increasing housing costs also played a role in changing voters' positions in the states of North and South Carolina.
Voters measure results, not indicators
This report, in its conclusion, emphasizes that one of the most important lessons of the election is how much governments face limitations in convincing voters that things are improving by citing economic growth statistics or market performance, especially when the cost of living continues to put pressure on people's incomes.
Democrats also faced this same problem in the 2024 elections. At that time, the Biden administration emphasized the strength of economic growth, while voters' main concern was rising prices. An issue that played a role in the Democrats' defeat.
This newspaper, citing Joseph LaVorgna, the chief economist of SMBC Americas who worked in the National Economic Council during Trump's first administration, wrote that American voters expected the country's president to solve this problem, but he did not. LaVorgna added that the decline in real income puts families in a state of worry that goes beyond the issue of prices.
Changes in surveys also show the dimensions of the Republicans' retreat. Now voters prefer Democrats in the field of economic management by a three-percentage-point margin. This comes as Republicans were previously ahead by a 12-percentage-point margin.
Also, the Republicans' 10-percentage-point lead on the issue of inflation has turned into a five-percentage-point lead for the Democrats. On the issue of customs tariffs as well, the Republicans' seven-percentage-point lead has given way to the Democrats' lead by the same margin.
Thus, the US congressional midterm elections were not merely a referendum on the political performance of the country's administration but turned into a kind of direct reckoning with it over living costs. When real wages decline and the bills for fuel, housing, and food increase, the promises of economic prosperity will have less persuasive power compared to the figures citizens see when paying at stores and gas stations.
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